Hoover Institution
The Hoover Institution shares videos intended to encourage discussion, generate ideas, and disseminate information related to peace, the human condition, and the role of government.
Trump’s Confrontational Strategy Depends on Results That Have Yet to Arrive
Hoover historian Victor Davis Hanson argues that Donald Trump’s confrontational style can force changes that more cautious politicians would not achieve, but that the resentment it creates can undermine those gains. In a discussion with Peter Robinson, Hanson points to NATO spending and shifts in U.S. policy as evidence for the approach while acknowledging that the Iran conflict, the economy and the Trump family’s business dealings could weaken its political case. His favorable judgment of Trump, he says, depends on results that remain uncertain.
US-Africa Ties Need to Match Each Country’s Economic and Strategic Priorities
Nearly $80 billion in US–sub-Saharan African trade in 2025 has not ensured that US engagement matches the priorities of individual countries, argues Gift Iyioku. In a Hoover Institution analysis of relations with the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria and Djibouti, Iyioku says the problem is not a lack of engagement but a mismatch in its emphasis: US policy should better connect commercial, security and diplomatic ties to each country’s circumstances, and build partnerships that are predictable and mutually beneficial.
The China Shock’s Wage and Living-Standards Findings Did Not Survive a Revised Design
Economic historian Joseph Francis argues that the research behind the influential China shock narrative is less conclusive than its policy influence suggests. On EconTalk with Russ Roberts, he says a 2022 correction to the research design cut the estimated effect on manufacturing employment roughly in half and largely erased reported effects on wages and living standards. The revised result leaves open how much Chinese imports contributed to local job losses, but, Francis argues, it weakens the broader claims often drawn from the research.
Falling Approval and Independent Shifts Point to Democratic House Gains
Stanford political scientists David Brady and Douglas Rivers see a plausible path to a Democratic wave in the 2026 midterms, particularly in the House, where Brady estimates the party could gain about 30 seats. Brady bases that forecast on falling presidential approval and a shift among independent voters, while Rivers is more cautious about race-by-race predictions but says the overall direction is easier to estimate. They warn that voter dissatisfaction with Donald Trump does not necessarily amount to support for Democrats, leaving the party’s Senate prospects and post-election strategy less certain.
Household Wealth Differences Change How Fiscal and Monetary Policy Work
Greg Kaplan argues that macroeconomic models need to account for differences in households’ wealth, liquidity and spending behavior to explain how fiscal and monetary policies affect the economy. In his discussion with Jon Hartley, Kaplan traces the shift from Keynes’s consumption function to heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian models, which show why the effects of a policy depend on who receives it and how households can use their resources. He says such models are most useful for testing counterfactuals, not forecasting near-term output.
Proposition 39 Offers a Voter Confidence Rationale for Stricter ID Checks
Hoover’s Justin Grimmer argues that Proposition 39 is more likely to affect confidence in California elections than to prevent significant voter fraud, which he says is already rare. The measure would replace signature checks on mail ballots with a match against the last four digits of a government ID and require ID at polling places; Grimmer says research finds voter ID laws have little effect on turnout but may increase trust. He also identifies an unresolved implementation question: how voters already registered would choose an ID for mail-ballot verification.
China’s Patent Boom Reflects Broad, Improving Innovation, Study Finds
Josh Lerner and Amit Seru argue that China’s innovation surge is real: their analysis of millions of patents finds activity across critical technologies, rising patent quality and a system built largely on homegrown talent—not just a few favored companies. They also find that universities and smaller firms play a larger role in China than in the United States. Their findings, discussed with Steven Davis, challenge accounts that reduce China’s progress to imitation or subsidies and sharpen the question of how the US can compete without weakening its own research and innovation system.
Courts Have Yet to Set Limits on Police Searches of License Plate Data
Stanford legal scholar Orin Kerr argues that the central Fourth Amendment question raised by Flock license plate cameras is not whether a single camera records a car on a public road, but whether a searchable network can reveal a vehicle’s movements across places and over time. Existing Supreme Court decisions offer competing ways to assess that kind of tracking, leaving unsettled when a database query counts as a search and what limits it should face. Kerr also says the debate lacks solid evidence about how often the cameras help police or how warrant requirements would affect their use.
Chinese Influence in Latin America Leaves Openings for US Diplomacy
In a Hoover Institution analysis, Jian Ren argues that China’s economic influence in Latin America is more durable than individual investments but less controllable than Beijing’s confidence suggests. The movement of Chinese nationals and companies abroad can produce legal and reputational problems that the state cannot easily manage. Ren says the United States can use its existing role in visa screening, alongside regional dialogue and independent China expertise, to give Latin American governments stronger reasons to work with Washington.
Changing Your Situation Can Matter More Than Resisting Temptation
Psychologist Angela Duckworth argues in *Situated* that changing the conditions around a temptation can be more effective than relying on willpower at the moment of choice. In a conversation with EconTalk’s Russ Roberts, she uses examples such as moving a phone out of reach to explain how environments shape behavior—and how the cultures people join can gradually shape what they want. Duckworth presents this as an extension of her work on grit, not a rejection of personal agency: people can exercise agency by changing their situations.
Courts Can Restrain Executive Power, but the Checks Move Slowly
Michael McConnell argues that constitutional checks on presidential power can work, but often move more slowly than the executive branch. In a Hoover Institution discussion, the former federal appellate judge points to immigration enforcement and tariffs as cases where courts challenged administration actions, while arguing that the boundary between lawful executive authority and overreach remains especially difficult to draw in foreign affairs. He also defends a decentralized court system, saying multiple courts should develop legal arguments before a nationwide resolution.
Trump’s Biggest Court Losses Tested the Limits of Presidential Power
Michael McConnell argues that the Supreme Court’s record in major cases involving Donald Trump does not support the claim that the justices are simply in the president’s pocket. Trump won important rulings on presidential authority, but the court also rejected several positions central to his agenda, including on birthright citizenship and tariffs. McConnell says the decisions are better judged case by case: some wins rested on longstanding legal arguments, while the losses show limits on presidential power.
The Supreme Court’s 80% Emergency Win Rate Reflects Case Selection
Michael McConnell argues that the gap between the Trump administration’s frequent losses in lower courts and its high win rate at the Supreme Court does not show that the justices are simply serving the president. The figures concern emergency cases, and the appeals reaching the Supreme Court are a small, selected share of lower-court disputes. McConnell says the Court has generally upheld presidential control over the executive branch while limiting claims of executive power over the public, often resolving urgent cases cautiously without settling their legality.
The Somme’s 600,000 Casualties Show the Human Cost of Trench Warfare
Hoover Institution senior fellow Niall Ferguson argues that the Western Front’s trench warfare made the First World War’s destructive power visible in its human toll: British forces suffered 60,000 casualties on the first day of the Somme, and British and French losses over the battle reached about 600,000. Ferguson connects that toll to his grandfather’s survival of a German gas attack and to Wilfred Owen’s phrase “the pity of war.” He also traces the Hoover Institution’s archives to Herbert Hoover’s wartime relief work and his effort to preserve records of war, peace and revolution.
Beijing Seeks to Weaken Taiwan’s Resolve Without Starting a War
Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program, argues that Beijing is intensifying pressure on Taiwan to make resistance appear futile, while avoiding the costs and risks of war. Chinese military and government operations around the island, alongside cyberattacks and political influence efforts, are normalizing a greater Chinese presence and testing Taiwan’s control. Glaser says an invasion is not set for 2027: that date refers to the military’s target for being capable of taking Taiwan, not a timetable for doing so.
Spatial Intelligence Extends AI Beyond Language Into Three-Dimensional Worlds
Fei-Fei Li argues that the next frontier in artificial intelligence is spatial intelligence: systems that can perceive and work with three-dimensional worlds, not just language and flat images. In a conversation with historian Stephen Kotkin, the Stanford computer scientist and World Labs co-founder connects that ambition to a broader question about how intelligence works—and says the development of powerful AI also demands truth-seeking, public responsibility and greater attention to teachers and families.
Allies Need Deterrence and Backup Routes to Protect Maritime Chokepoints
Adm. James O. Ellis Jr. argues that Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz shows how a state without a great navy can endanger shipping with shore-based missiles, drones and sea mines. He says the United States and its allies need to deter such attacks with forces able to contest access to chokepoints, while also preparing reserves and alternate routes to limit the damage if a waterway is closed.
Global Fertility Has Fallen Below Replacement, With Population Peaking Near 9 Billion
Economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde argues that global fertility has fallen below replacement, though population momentum could keep the total growing until it peaks at about 9 billion in the mid-2050s. His projection is far below the UN’s medium variant, which he says assumes a recovery in fertility that recent data do not support. The shift, he argues, is no longer confined to wealthy countries: middle-income countries including Mexico and Tunisia are also recording very low fertility.
Political Costs Keep Broad Agreement on Healthcare Reform From Becoming Action
Lanhee Chen argues that policy problems can be easier to identify than to turn into politically viable reforms. Drawing on his campaign for California State Controller and his work on Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign, the Hoover Institution fellow says politicians often avoid healthcare changes they consider necessary because they fear the political cost, while market-oriented alternatives take longer to explain than simpler promises of government control. His account points to a recurring gap between proposals Chen considers workable and politicians’ willingness to explain them to voters.
Ivan Ilyich’s Death Exposes the Cost of Living by Convention
Ivan Ilyich’s terror is not simply that he is dying, but that the respectable life he has built may have been wasted. Rabbi and author David Wolpe and EconTalk’s Russ Roberts argue that Tolstoy’s story shows how living by social convention can keep a person from asking what makes a life good. Drawing on Wolpe’s serious illnesses and his experience visiting people at the bedside, they consider how facing death can expose that failure—and why honest presence and human care matter at the end.
Legal Pressure Helped Trump Rebuild His Coalition and Win Again
Historian Victor Davis Hanson argues that Donald Trump’s return to the White House was helped by the prosecutions that followed his political defeat: they made Trump more sympathetic to voters and weakened his Republican rivals. Hanson also credits Trump’s appeal to working-class Black and Hispanic men and his offer to technology executives of a less restrictive partnership against China. He casts Trump’s second-term agenda as a broader effort to challenge universities, media organizations and other institutions he sees as sources of progressive power.
Universities Have Not Reconciled Research With Liberal Education
At a Hoover Institution book talk, Peter Berkowitz argued that American universities have failed to reconcile research and professional training with their responsibility to provide undergraduates a liberal education. In his view, that education should prepare students to exercise the rights and responsibilities of freedom, not merely equip them for a profession. He called for universities to make the commitment concrete through a small required core of shared study and stronger protections for open debate and fair process.
Monetary Policy Moved From Monetarism to Inflation Targeting
Mickey Levy argues that the Federal Reserve should treat money growth as an important warning signal, not as a mechanical target. Drawing on his work with the Shadow Open Market Committee, founded in 1973, he says the group was right to link excess money growth to inflation in the 1970s but later overreached as the relationship between money and spending became less reliable. In conversation with Jon Hartley, Levy applies that distinction to the pandemic-era surge in inflation and the Fed’s balance sheet, while Hartley highlights how inflation targeting has helped anchor expectations.
Robert Hall’s Consumption Test Put Household Expectations at the Center of Macroeconomics
Valerie Ramey argues that Robert Hall helped make household decisions central to macroeconomic models, showing how expectations about future income—not just current paychecks—shape consumption. She explains how Hall tested the permanent income hypothesis against data and why its findings matter for policy: households may save much of a temporary tax rebate, while lasting income gains can support higher spending. The account also traces how Hall’s approach influenced economic research and Ramey’s own work.