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Decisive Force Now Depends on Distributed Precision and Rapid Replacement

Hoover InstitutionMonday, July 27, 20264 min read

Nadia Schadlow argues that cheap, precise drones are changing military mass from the physical concentration of forces at a single decisive point into coordinated pressure across a wider battlespace. But she contends that decentralized systems matter only if militaries can field, adapt and replace them at scale—and that they must complement, rather than replace, troops, logistics and high-end combined-arms capabilities.

The operational problem is pressure without a single target

Modern warfare is changing what it means to concentrate force. Cheap, precise systems such as drones can be decentralized across a battlespace, disrupting an enemy at several points rather than depending on one large attack at one decisive location.

That gives defenders a different problem. Instead of locating and responding to a single concentrated formation, they can be left exposed to simultaneous threats across multiple fronts. The relevant form of mass is no longer solely a physical accumulation of troops and weapons at one point; it can be a coordinated set of command decisions and strikes, sustained across an area.

Mass is now a swarm of command decisions that can be executed with far greater precision, persistence, and speed than ever before.

This is not an argument that force concentration has ceased to matter. It is an argument that decentralized systems can create some of the effects historically associated with concentration while widening the area under pressure. A commander’s question is therefore not just where to assemble the largest force, but how to impose and sustain disruption across the battlespace.

Mass once meant being strongest at the decisive point

For centuries, military thought treated victory as a matter of concentrating overwhelming force where an attack would have the greatest effect on the wider conflict. The historical principle rested on numerical superiority, concentration of forces, and the ability to sustain manpower—factors the source associates with Thucydides’ account of ancient warfare.

Carl von Clausewitz gave the idea its enduring formulation: a strategy should be “very strong overall, and the strongest at the decisive point.” The U.S. military still lists mass among its nine principles of war: combat power should be concentrated where and when it matters most.

The principle has not disappeared. Its form has changed. Drones demonstrated in Ukraine allow a force to decentralize precise attacks, so that the enemy confronts pressure across the wider battlefield rather than only at the location of a major assault. The decisive effect may now come from coordinated activity at multiple points, not only from a single overwhelming blow.

Mass has become decentralized, democratized, and deliverable

The source’s framework has three parts. First is decentralization: lower-cost precision systems allow attacks to be distributed rather than held within a single formation or directed against one objective.

Second is democratization. Precision strikes built on mass force are no longer confined to a few advanced armies. More than 90 countries now operate drones.

90+
countries that now operate drones

Possession alone, however, does not create a durable advantage. That is the third part of the framework: deliverability. Cheap systems can impose serious damage even on stronger forces only when they are integrated effectively and delivered at scale. A military must be able to get them into the field, alter them as battlefield conditions change, and replace them after they are lost.

Deliverability makes industrial and organizational speed part of combat power. The required practices are to buy faster, build faster, and adapt faster, including by designing some systems to be expendable from the outset. Low cost is useful not as an end in itself, but because it can support rapid replacement and continued operational availability.

The choice, then, is not quantity versus quality. The issue is how to balance both: whether a force can field, modify, and replenish lower-cost systems quickly enough for them to create continuing military effects.

A drone force does not replace the rest of the force

Distributed precision systems do not displace the foundations of strategic victory. Troops, logistics, and the ability to combine different forces in the field remain necessary. A military still needs to move personnel and equipment, sustain operations, coordinate decisions, and employ complementary capabilities together.

That requirement is especially important as adversaries invest in advanced systems. The source depicts China’s military investment as including air defenses, hypersonic weapons, and nuclear forces. The corresponding U.S. requirement is not a choice between cheap drones and high-end capabilities, but a force that combines mass, precision, technological sophistication, and adaptability.

The source’s visual contrast between Chinese and U.S. investment makes the point plainly: advanced defenses and strategic weapons do not make lower-cost systems irrelevant, while inexpensive precision systems do not eliminate the need for conventional forces, logistics, or technological depth. Each is part of a balanced force.

Future advantage, in this account, belongs to armies that can adapt, scale, and balance their forces faster than their opponents. Mass remains a principle of war, but it now includes the ability to distribute precise effects, supply them, modify them, and reconstitute them as conditions change.

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