Jason Calacanis
Entrepreneur, angel investor, and host of This Week in Startups and This Week in AI; he also co-hosts the All-In Podcast and runs Founder University.
Hugging Face Bets on Cheap Robots to Build Physical AI
Hugging Face co-founder Thomas Wolf argues that Microduck, a sub-$400 open-source robot, is meant to bring more builders into physical AI—not by solving household work, but by giving users a capable machine on which to train and share behaviors. In this interview, Wolf places that bet alongside Hugging Face’s larger model: free public distribution supported by paid storage and compute infrastructure, with open models providing organizations an alternative when proprietary systems are unavailable, restricted or unsuitable. He also says that openness must be paired with stronger AI-driven cyber defense after the company’s own breach.
America’s Promise Is Opportunity, Not Guaranteed Outcomes
David Sacks argues that America’s defining promise is not provision but the opportunity to pursue anything through work, talent and initiative. In the All-In Summit’s 2026 introductory film, Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg and Jason Calacanis frame their immigrant and entrepreneurial experiences as evidence of a culture that rewards ambition, tolerates unconventional ideas and treats failure as part of trying. The montage pairs that case with presidential appeals to building, risk-taking and national renewal.
NASA’s Strategy Shifts From Commercial Subsidies to Nuclear Deep Space
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman argues that the agency’s $25 billion budget is sufficient but misallocated: NASA should buy commercial services where markets exist and concentrate its own resources on capabilities with no immediate business case, including lunar operations, nuclear power and propulsion, and deep-space science. He frames a sustained presence at the lunar south pole as both preparation for Mars and an urgent strategic test, arguing that delays would cede scarce operational ground to China and Russia.
AI’s Next Test Is Turning Data-Center CapEx Into Revenue
Altimeter Capital’s Brad Gerstner argues that the AI-led market rise is not a dot-com-style bubble because Nasdaq earnings growth, not multiple expansion, has driven returns—but the gains have been concentrated in semiconductor and infrastructure suppliers rather than the companies buying compute. He says the investment case now hinges on whether AI labs, especially Anthropic and OpenAI, can grow revenue quickly enough to support a trillion-dollar data-center build-out, while power, permitting, labor, regulation and borrowing costs limit how much capacity can actually be delivered.
AI Leadership Will Be Decided by Deployment, Not Model Ownership
Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang argues that AI policy should target demonstrable failures at frontier labs rather than catastrophic forecasts he calls ungrounded. In a discussion joined briefly by President Donald Trump, Huang says US leadership will depend less on owning every important model than on deploying AI broadly through open and closed systems, compute, power, data centers and industrial capacity. He also contends that “superintelligence” already exists in bounded applications such as autonomous driving and protein science, making practical deployment—not speculative thresholds—the central challenge.
AI Safety Rules Could Concentrate Control Over Frontier Models
All-In’s David Sacks, David Friedberg, Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis argue that warnings of near-term AI extinction rest on an unproven leap from current models to autonomous self-improvement, while the policy response could concentrate AI control in regulated proprietary platforms. They extend that skepticism to Anthropic’s IPO messaging, OpenAI’s handling of customer data in its Navier–Stokes work, and Nike’s decline, which they attribute to weakened product discipline, distribution decisions and a blurred athletic brand.
Founder Vesting Protects Startups When Co-Founders Leave
Wilson Sonsini partner Becki DeGraw argues that startup equity should remain tied to ongoing contribution: founder vesting lets a company recover unearned shares when a co-founder leaves, while advisor grants need objective milestones or active termination when the work stops. She says founders negotiating financing gain their strongest leverage from multiple term sheets, which allow them to weigh vesting, board representation and follow-on capacity alongside valuation.
AI’s Defining Fight Is Open Access Versus Frontier Control
All-In hosts argue that GPT-6 Astra’s claimed AGI status matters less than the widening availability and falling cost of advanced AI. Chamath Palihapitiya expects frontier capabilities to converge quickly, while David Sacks sees a durable divide between a closed-model frontier duopoly and a larger commodity market—and warns that AI regulation could entrench the leading labs. Across cybersecurity, data centers and schools, they make the case for broad access paired with practical safeguards rather than centralized control.
Insulin Testing Could Reveal Metabolic Risk Before Blood Sugar Rises
Dr Mark Hyman argues that US healthcare is built to treat diagnosed disease rather than identify the metabolic and nutritional problems that precede it. Through Function Health, Hyman is making the case for patient-held, longitudinal records that combine laboratory tests, imaging, wearables and medical history, with AI used to organize the data under clinician supervision. He says routinely overlooked measures such as insulin and ApoB can reveal risk hidden by normal blood-sugar readings, while warning that wider testing and GLP-1 use require careful interpretation, follow-up and muscle-preserving care.
Clean IP Title Determines Whether a Spinout Can Raise
Wilson Sonsini partner Becki DeGraw argues that a spinout must give the parent a defensible return without leaving the new company’s founders too little ownership to recruit, raise capital, and build an independent business. Alongside the cap table, she says, the parties must establish a clean chain of title to the IP and document continuing rights around infrastructure, employees, customers, and confidential information before the team begins operating separately.
AI Investment Accelerates as Treasury Faces a $10 Trillion Refinancing Wall
All-In’s David Friedberg, David Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya argue that the US is entering a fiscal squeeze that Treasury buybacks cannot resolve, as trillions in debt must be refinanced at higher rates. They see continued private investment in AI infrastructure—bolstered by Nvidia’s earnings—as one of the few plausible sources of growth large enough to ease that burden, while Salesforce’s results challenge the broader claim that AI agents will erase enterprise software. Their distinction is between replaceable workflows and systems of record whose data, controls and organizational context agents still need.
Preferred Stockholders Control Their Designated Board Seats
Wilson Sonsini partner Becki DeGraw argues that startup founders should treat board seats as durable allocations of corporate control, not as informal advisory roles they can revoke when a relationship sours. Boards approve consequential actions from financings and equity grants to CEO changes, and preferred-stock investors commonly gain designated seats whose holders are elected by their own class of stock. Once those rights are set in the charter and financing documents, common stockholders generally cannot remove the investor’s director without that investor’s agreement.
China Uses Robot Sports to Normalize Humanoids Before Mass Deployment
Jason Calacanis argues that China’s World Humanoid Robot Games are not simply a technical showcase but a campaign to make people cheer for machines before those machines enter workplaces and daily life. On This Week in Startups, he contrasts Beijing’s use of sport and spectacle with what he sees as a more anxious American debate about AI displacement, while Lon Harris says the games’ anthropomorphic framing is plainly intended to make humanoids seem familiar and relatable.
AI Game Creation Shifts From Coding to Taste and Iteration
Astrocade CEO Amir Sadeghian argues that generative AI can lower the cost of making interactive experiences, but cannot replace the human judgment required to make a game worth playing. His company pairs natural-language generation with an editor for tuning mechanics, pacing and other precise choices, on the premise that “taste is the new programming language.” As more people publish AI-made games and other interactive content, Sadeghian says discovery and recommendation will determine whether creators can find an audience.
Anthropic’s IPO Would Test Whether AI Token Demand Can Fund Compute
All-In’s panel, joined by investor Gavin Baker, argues that Anthropic’s reported $2 trillion IPO would be a critical test of whether customer demand for AI can sustain the debt-financed compute buildout behind it. David Sacks calls Anthropic the industry’s “pace car”: continued growth would support spending across cloud capacity, chips and power, while a demand-led slowdown could trigger a broader pileup. The discussion also weighs whether cheaper open models and Grok will erode frontier labs’ pricing power—or expand the market while leaving a premium for leading systems.
An Allied Economic Bloc Is the Answer to China
Rahm Emanuel argues that the United States should counter China not through unilateral tariffs or confrontation with allies, but by organizing a democratic economic bloc with the scale to resist Beijing’s coercion. That strategy, he says, depends on rebuilding American capacity at home—from research and manufacturing to immigration, education and housing—while pursuing political coalitions capable of governing rather than ideological purity. Emanuel also casts the Democratic Socialists of America as a separate project whose priorities, in his view, undermine the broader effort to defeat Trump and enact practical policy.
Meta Offers AI Access in Exchange for Data Center Support
Jason Calacanis argues that Mark Zuckerberg’s AI manifesto is a political bargain: Meta promises broadly available tutors, agents and business tools in exchange for public acceptance of the data centers needed to run them. He sees open-weight models and AI embedded in Meta’s existing apps as both a competitive strategy and a way to argue that AI’s gains will not be confined to a few companies. Lon Harris is more skeptical, describing the essay as a polished case for Meta’s expanding product footprint as much as for distributed access to intelligence.
AI Economics Are Splitting Between Compute, Distribution, and Frontier Models
All-In panelists argue that AI’s economics are separating businesses with established distribution, compute capacity and cash flow from expensive frontier-model bets whose premiums may not endure. David Friedberg and Brad Gerstner see Google and SpaceX leaning toward infrastructure with more visible returns, while David Sacks argues that Anthropic and OpenAI can still command premium pricing at the frontier. Their debate over Airtable and US training-data sales turns on the same question: which advantages are durable, and which depend on temporary scarcity or venture-era expectations.
Leverage and Rising Yields Expose the AI Trade’s Fragility
The All-In hosts argue that the AI boom’s long-term productivity promise is colliding with immediate financial and political constraints: a chip-stock selloff exposed the danger of leverage, while higher Treasury yields are raising the cost of betting on distant AI returns. David Sacks maintains that frontier labs’ revenue and compute access support the infrastructure buildout, but Chamath Palihapitiya and David Friedberg question where the economics will ultimately accrue as open models, energy limits and cheaper alternatives reshape the market. They also cast the fight over AI safety, training data and regulation as a contest over who gets to control the technology’s future.
Lower Qubit Requirements Narrow Quantum Computing’s Path to Utility
Yaqumo CEO Kazuhiro Nakashoji argues that quantum computing’s long-delayed commercial timeline is narrowing because hardware capabilities are rising as the number of qubits needed for useful work falls. He says progress in algorithms, error correction and neutral-atom hardware could bring those curves together around 2030, though quantum processors would serve as specialized accelerators alongside conventional systems rather than replace them. Yaqumo’s bet is that integrating the lasers, vacuum equipment and software behind those machines can turn laboratory research into deployable infrastructure.
AI Competition Will Turn on Model Rules, Data Control, and Power
All-In panelists David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya and David Friedberg argue that AI policy is becoming a contest over who controls model approvals, enterprise data and the power needed for data centers. Sacks backs Demis Hassabis’s proposal for a narrowly focused, industry-led safety body over a conventional AI regulator, provided it does not become a gatekeeper for incumbent labs; the panel makes a parallel case against state data-center moratoria and closed enterprise AI stacks that could limit cheaper alternatives.
Stripe’s PayPal Bet Would Trade Focus for Scale
A reported preliminary Stripe evaluation of a bid for PayPal has prompted Jason Calacanis to imagine a merger that combines PayPal’s distribution and cash flow with Stripe’s infrastructure, then cuts deeply into PayPal’s cost base. Alex Wilhelm argues that the same transaction could saddle the faster-growing company with legacy systems and an unwieldy workforce, undermining the focus that made Stripe valuable. Their dispute turns less on whether a share swap or leveraged deal can be structured than on whether PayPal’s reach can be separated from the machinery required to sustain it.
Legal AI Is Repricing the $1 Trillion Legal Services Market
Legora’s Max Junestrand and ElevenLabs’ Mati Staniszewski argue that AI’s economic impact will be determined less by access to frontier models than by the systems built around them. Junestrand says legal AI can shift firms away from billing junior-lawyer hours by combining complete legal research, firm data and workflow tools; Staniszewski says voice AI is becoming a customer interface whose viability depends on orchestration, industry integrations and consent over voices treated as identity and intellectual property.
Frontier AI Labs Face an Enterprise ROI Test
The panel’s central dispute is whether frontier AI labs can sustain premium pricing as enterprises shift routine work to cheaper models and begin demanding returns on rising token spend. Chamath Palihapitiya argued that customer ROI remains thin and could make current revenue growth fragile, while Altimeter’s Brad Gerstner said frontier capability will retain value in high-stakes research, engineering, and discovery—supporting potential trillion-dollar IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI. The group also cast sovereign AI, China’s possible restrictions on model access, and Trump Accounts as contests over who controls strategic technology and long-term asset ownership.
Enterprise AI Buyers Are Turning Sovereignty Into a Vendor-Control Fight
The Palantir-Nvidia partnership is presented as evidence that enterprise AI safety is becoming a question of customer control rather than model access. David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg and Jason Calacanis argue that companies and governments should not hand proprietary data, model weights, compute decisions and operating know-how to frontier labs that may later compete with them. The discussion extends from that AI sovereignty argument into a separate jobs dispute over whether current employment data can answer future displacement claims, and into fights over birthright citizenship and California’s budget as questions of institutional authority and fiscal accountability.
8090 Targets the $4 Trillion Services Layer in Enterprise Software
Chamath Palihapitiya argues that AI’s most important near-term business use is not casual prompt-based coding, but a governed way for enterprises to build and maintain custom software with the discipline of large technology companies. In a This Week in Startups interview, he presents 8090 and its Software Factory product as an attempt to attack the services layer of enterprise software spending by turning business intent into auditable requirements, plans, code, and updates. The same concern with agency runs through his broader claim: AI may make more things abundant, but people and companies still need risk, control, and “adventure” to develop.
Board Bets Tabletop Touchscreens Can Make Video Games Social Again
Brynn Putnam, founder and CEO of Board, argues that video games can become more social by moving the screen from individual devices to a shared tabletop. In a This Week in Startups interview, she describes Board as a $399 “face-to-face gaming console” that uses a 24-inch touchscreen and physical pieces to combine the interactivity of video games with the accessibility of family board games. The broader case is that category-creating hardware has to make the experience legible before the market is obvious.
SpaceX, Anthropic, and Iran Test the Case Against Centralized Power
The All-In panel uses a week of fights over welfare, SpaceX, Anthropic and Iran to argue over who should hold power when risk is high: markets and individuals, or political and corporate gatekeepers. David Friedberg, David Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya cast much of the discussion as a warning against centralization, from benefit systems that can weaken agency to AI safety regimes that could hand control to governments and hyperscalers. Jason Calacanis shares parts of that concern but presses the practical tensions, especially in the Anthropic dispute and in Trump’s Iran memorandum, where he questions whether the war that produced a possible deal was necessary.
GRU Space Plans Lunar-Regolith Bricks as the First Step Toward a Moon Hotel
On This Week in Startups, GRU Space founder Skyler Chan argues that a Moon hotel is the first commercial wedge for a larger off-Earth manufacturing business: using lunar regolith to make construction materials rather than shipping them from Earth. Chan lays out a plan to prove the technology by making a brick on the Moon, then scale toward robotic habitats, NASA construction work, space tourism and eventual claims on lunar resources. The same episode turns to Anthropic’s forced shutdown of Fable 5 and Mythos 5, which Jason Calacanis and Lon Harris frame as a warning that frontier capabilities can be cut off before law, politics and operating norms have settled.
GRU Space’s Moon Hotel Depends on Turning Lunar Dirt Into Infrastructure
Skyler Chan of GRU Space argues that the company’s proposed lunar hotel is less a tourism stunt than a test case for building infrastructure from the moon itself. In an interview with Jason Calacanis and Lon Harris, Chan said GRU’s core bet is that concentrated sunlight can melt lunar regolith into durable building material, reducing the need to haul construction supplies from Earth; the episode also used a contested rumor about Anthropic to examine how closely frontier AI labs are becoming tied to U.S. national-security institutions.
Anthropic’s Fable Backlash Exposes the Risk of Hidden AI Gatekeeping
The All-In panel argues that Anthropic’s handling of Claude Fable 5 turned AI safety into an enterprise trust problem, with Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks and David Friedberg focusing on hidden downgrades, prompt retention and a provider’s power to decide who receives full model capability. The same concern over opaque discretion shaped their California election discussion, where Friedberg and Sacks argued that legal ballot rules can still produce outcomes voters view as manipulated, while Calacanis called for investigation rather than treating suspicious statistics as proof of fraud.
SpaceX’s IPO Forces Public Markets to Price a Venture-Scale Future
Jason Calacanis used SpaceX’s reported IPO to argue that public markets will misread the company if they treat it only as a near-term earnings story. On This Week in Startups, he framed SpaceX as part operating business and part venture bet: Starlink and launch can be measured today, while direct-to-phone service, orbital data centers, Moon bases and Mars remain longer-horizon wagers on Elon Musk’s execution. The episode then turned to Polsia founder Ben Cera, whose AI-run fundraising stunt was presented as a case study in attention that demonstrates the product rather than merely promoting it.
Brilliant’s Koji Uses AI to Make Students Solve Problems Themselves
Brilliant founder Sue Khim tells This Week in Startups that the company’s new AI tutor, Koji, is built to counter the education use case parents fear most: software that gives students answers while eroding their ability to think. Khim argues the opportunity is not generic AI in the classroom, but a constrained tutor embedded in Brilliant’s lessons that uses Socratic prompting, visual scaffolding, and assessment to help students solve problems themselves. Jason Calacanis frames the same idea more broadly, saying AI is useful when it strengthens the person doing the work rather than replacing the work.
AI Compresses Years of Software Vulnerability Discovery Into Weeks
Palo Alto Networks chief executive Nikesh Arora told the All-In podcast that AI has changed cybersecurity by making years of latent software vulnerabilities discoverable in weeks. After testing Anthropic’s Claude Mythos against Palo Alto’s own code, Arora said the company found flaws that would normally have taken five to seven years to identify, raising the stakes for enterprises with weaker defenses. His broader argument was that AI will erode analytical SaaS while increasing the value of data infrastructure, workflow redesign and security systems that can make model outputs reliable enough for production.
Private-Company Secondaries Hit $248 Billion as IPO Alternatives Grow
Brad Gerstner, Gavin Baker and Kelly Rodriques argue on an All-In secondary-markets panel that private-company share trading has moved from a workaround for employees and early investors into a major exit route competing with IPOs and acquisitions. Their case is that companies are staying private long enough to create a structural liquidity problem for employees, venture funds and LPs, while platforms such as Forge are trying to turn that demand into permissioned market infrastructure. The panel also warns that broader access does not make late-stage private shares cheap, especially in famous AI, space and defense names.
Sanders’ 50% AI Stock Plan Turns Training Data Into a Political Fight
Jason Calacanis argued that Anthropic’s call for an AI slowdown and Bernie Sanders’ proposal for public ownership of major AI companies show AI politics moving toward jobs, ownership and redistribution. He dismissed Sanders’ 50% stock-tax plan as unworkable but said its premise could resonate with voters who believe AI companies built enormous value from public and creative inputs while threatening employment. Yoland Yan’s ComfyUI demo supplied the production-layer version of the same control question, presenting generative AI as a workflow where exposed parameters and reproducibility matter more than prompt-box convenience.
Tech Founders Argue IPOs Can Create More Upside After Listing
At an All-In Liquidity IPO panel, Altimeter’s Brad Gerstner, Cerebras chief executive Andrew Feldman and Planet Labs chief executive Will Marshall made the case that public markets are again becoming a place where venture-backed technology companies can compound, not merely exit. Gerstner argued that investors often give up large gains by forcing distributions after an IPO, while Feldman said more money is historically made after companies go public than before. Marshall and Feldman also described the IPO less as an operating transformation than as a change in capital, credibility and scrutiny, with execution still determining whether the listing creates lasting value.
Short Selling Returns as Stock Selection Replaces Broad Market Bets
Dan Loeb, founder of Third Point, argues that markets have moved back toward stock picking and short selling, but not in the simple sense of betting against expensive companies. In an All-In interview, he says the useful short now requires a clear mechanism of deterioration, while long investing increasingly depends on understanding technology, business durability, management adaptability and the limits of old market-cap assumptions. Loeb presents Third Point’s evolution as an accumulation of tools: event-driven investing, activism, credit, venture-style technology work and a renewed need for selectivity.
Startups Build the Missing Logistics Layers for Orbit and Construction Sites
Impulse Space and Dusty Robotics are making the same kind of bet in very different markets: that valuable infrastructure sits in the handoff after the headline platform has done its job. Tom Mueller argues Impulse is building the logistics layer after launch, with Mira serving government demand for orbital mobility and Helios aimed at faster, cheaper moves from low Earth orbit to GEO, while lunar and Mars payload gains sit inside his broader case for in-space transport. Tessa Lau argues Dusty is doing the analogous work in construction, turning digital plans into precise floor-printed instructions for trades, data center builders and eventually other job-site robots.
Ackman Says AI Threats Are Leaving Durable Incumbents Mispriced
Bill Ackman told the All-In hosts that Pershing Square’s investment filter has shifted toward durable business quality while remaining activist where influence can extend a company’s time horizon. He argued that AI has made disruption risk the first question for long-term investors, even as markets may be overlooking incumbents such as Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. Ackman also cast founder control, valuation discipline and permanent capital — including his Howard Hughes project — as ways to underwrite businesses through a period when public markets and CEOs are still working out AI’s practical effects.
OpenAI CFO Says Compute Scarcity Will Define Its Next Phase
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar used an All-In interview to frame the company less as an IPO candidate chasing public-market timing than as an infrastructure-scale AI business trying to finance scarce compute, broaden distribution, and defend the intelligence layer between users and the underlying technology. Friar argued that OpenAI’s consumer and enterprise products are meant to compound off the same foundation, even as the company raises unprecedented capital, diversifies cloud and chip supply, and considers ads without letting sponsored results distort ChatGPT.
Frontier Hardware Startups Face Infrastructure Constraints Beyond the Demo
Cortical Labs and Pyka show how frontier hardware companies move from demonstration to deployable infrastructure. On This Week in Startups, Cortical founder Hon Weng Chong presents the CL1 as a programmable biological computer that packages lab-grown neurons, silicon hardware, life support and cloud tools, and says unpublished work shows neurons can be 5,000 times more sample-efficient than GPU-based reinforcement learning systems. Pyka chief executive Michael Norcia argues that autonomous aircraft face a different bottleneck: not whether they can fly, but whether regulation, uptime, maintenance and field deployment allow them to improve in real use.
AI Governance Fight Shifts to Centralization, Open Models, and Worker Agency
On All-In, Bill Gurley joined Jason Calacanis, David Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya for a debate framed less around whether AI is powerful than around who will control it. The panel read Pope Leo XIV’s AI encyclical as a warning about concentrated power, but split over the remedy: Sacks argued government regulation could become the centralizing threat, while Gurley and others scrutinized Anthropic’s safety posture as either regulatory strategy or something closer to a belief in building a superior intelligence. Their practical conclusion was that open models, swappable systems and worker fluency are the main checks against AI power consolidating in a few labs or agencies.
Seed Founders Need 150 Qualified Investor Targets in 2026
Jason Calacanis uses a This Week in Startups “Ask Jason” segment to argue that raising a seed round in 2026 requires founders to treat fundraising as a qualified sales process, not a test of investor warmth. His benchmark is a large, researched funnel — about 150 seed funds contacted, 50 first meetings, 15 to 20 second meetings, and two term sheets — backed by more product and customer proof than early-stage companies once needed. He also argues that AI startups must build around workflow and distribution rather than generic model output, while hardware has become harder but more investable when it creates real lock-in.
Manna Bets Low-Cost Airline Economics Will Win Drone Delivery
Manna founder Bobby Healy tells This Week in Startups that drone delivery is becoming a low-cost operations business, not a novelty market, and argues his Dublin-based company can win by applying airline-style discipline to delivery networks. Healy says Manna’s 300,000 completed deliveries, claimed 97% Irish-weather availability and new $50 million Series B position it to expand in the U.S. as regulation opens up. Theseus co-founder Ian Laffey adds a defense-side version of the same argument from Kyiv: drone scale depends less on exotic aircraft than on cheap, reliable systems that can keep working when GPS and supply chains fail.
Software-Defined Factories Are Moving From Hypercars to Cruise Missiles
Lukas Czinger, chief executive of Divergent Technologies, argues on This Week in Startups that U.S. defense manufacturing can move faster and at lower cost if factories are treated as software-defined infrastructure rather than product-specific plants. The article also follows Brandon Goode and Mark Horowitz’s case for Outro Health: that antidepressant prescribing has scaled without an equally developed system for helping patients stop safely. Across the defense, healthcare and AI segments, the source frames the central problem as incentives — what existing systems pay companies to build, maintain or automate, and what they leave underbuilt.
AI Infrastructure Demand Is Becoming Revenue, Contracts, and Market Stress
Gavin Baker joined the All-In panel to argue that AI’s economics are becoming tangible: Anthropic’s reported profitability, surging LLM revenue, Nvidia’s results, and SpaceX’s compute contracts all point to infrastructure demand that is no longer speculative. The group framed SpaceX’s potential $2 trillion valuation as a bet on Starlink, launch, and AI compute rather than current earnings, while Baker defended Nvidia against share-loss and GPU-useful-life bear cases. The counterweight was political and macro risk: public backlash to AI, labor displacement, regulation, higher inflation, rising yields, and U.S.-China tension.
Divergent Says Software-Defined Factories Can Build Drones in 71 Days
Lukas Czinger, co-founder of Divergent Technologies, argues that the bottleneck in defense hardware is not design but the tooling and fixed production lines that make iteration slow once a product leaves prototype. In a livestream interview, he said Divergent’s software-defined factory can move autonomous aircraft and other complex systems from digital design into production without rebuilding the supply chain around each change, citing a 71-day clean-sheet build of a flyable small uncrewed aircraft as proof of the model.
Kled Founder Alleges Luel Copied Its Human Data Marketplace
This Week in Startups put two founder arguments side by side: Mercury chief executive Immad Akhund said the fintech’s new $200mn round is meant to create strategic flexibility for a profitable company seeking a bank charter, while Kled founder Avi Patel argued that an alleged copycat in the human-data marketplace category threatens trust in a business built on consent and compliance. Jason Calacanis treated Patel’s dispute with Luel, Y Combinator and General Catalyst less as an intellectual-property case than as an ethics and diligence signal for investors.
Seed Investors Now Expect Product Velocity, Not Just a Pitch Deck
Jason Calacanis argues that early-stage founders now need customer evidence before they can credibly raise or scale. In a live response to founder questions, he says the 2024 seed bar has moved from a strong deck to real product velocity — including, for SaaS companies, roughly $10,000 in monthly recurring revenue — and that founders should keep sales founder-led until about $1 million in ARR rather than hiring a VP of Sales to learn the market for them.
Mercury’s OCC Charter Moves It From Fintech Toward Direct Banking
Mercury CEO Immad Akhund argues the company’s OCC charter approval moves it from a fintech dependent on partner banks toward a bank that can hold deposits and build lending products directly. His case is not just that Mercury has won new authority, but that startup banking requires a different risk model: venture-backed customers can move cash in and out together with the funding cycle. Kled founder Avi Patel separately describes his company’s data marketplace and says a competitor copied its frontend so directly that Kled’s API keys remained in the source code.
AI Backlash Reaches Commencement as Graduates Face a Reshaped Job Market
Jason Calacanis and Alex Wilhelm argue that the boos greeting pro-AI commencement speeches are a visible sign of AI’s legitimacy problem with new graduates entering the workforce. On This Week in Startups, they frame the reaction less as technophobia than as distrust: students have already seen AI weaken academic norms, threaten entry-level work, concentrate wealth around frontier labs, and expand systems of surveillance and data capture. Their discussion returns to a central question: whether workers, founders, consumers, and citizens have any meaningful control over the AI systems now reshaping their choices.
Economic Entanglement, Not Decoupling, Defines the New China Bargain
Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff joined the All-In hosts for a discussion that framed U.S.-China relations, enterprise AI, and the software selloff around the same question: when dependence is a stabilizer and when it becomes leverage. Benioff argued that more trade with China can lower conflict risk and that large software platforms remain valuable because AI still needs trusted customer data, cash-flowing distribution, and enterprise deployment. David Friedberg, Chamath Palihapitiya, and Jason Calacanis extended the argument across Taiwan, chips, AI assistants, El Niño-driven food risk, and private-market SPVs, where interconnection can either absorb shocks or transmit them.
Self-Driving Startups Shift From Science Risk to OEM Deployment
Wayve chief executive Alex Kendall and Waabi chief executive Raquel Urtasun argue that self-driving has moved from a basic research problem to an execution problem built around end-to-end AI, world models, OEM partnerships and deployment economics. In this This Week in Startups discussion, Kendall makes the case for licensing Wayve’s “intelligence layer” across consumer vehicles and robotaxis, while Urtasun says Waabi’s L4-native Driver-as-a-Service model can scale first through trucking and then robotaxis. Both reject the idea that autonomy is simply solved, but they present the remaining challenge as integration, validation, regulation and commercialization rather than a missing scientific breakthrough.
AI Is Forcing Startups to Return Capital or Rebuild Around Agents
AI is forcing founders and investors to make decisions faster than venture’s last cycle assumed they would have to, Jason Calacanis, Alex Wilhelm, Jenny Fielding, Dave McClure and Sam Lessin argue on This Week in Startups. Fielding’s example is a legal-tech founder who raised a $15mn Series A and, six months later, planned to return the money because he believed Claude and other models could erode the company’s long-term value. The same pressure is showing up in private markets, where demand for exposure to OpenAI and Anthropic is straining company controls over secondary sales, SPVs and liquidity.
Cerebras’s Higher IPO Range Tests AI Infrastructure Demand
Alex Wilhelm and Jason Calacanis treat Cerebras’s raised IPO range as a test of how much public investors will pay for future AI inference demand and the quality of contracts with customers such as OpenAI. Ori Goshen makes a parallel case that enterprise AI’s hard problem is no longer choosing one model, but routing work across models, tools and inference strategies for cost, latency and accuracy. Across OpenAI’s deployment spinout, AI21’s orchestration pitch, Magrathea Metals’ brine-based magnesium plan and OpenClaw’s fading momentum, the article frames deployment as a question of incentives, constraints and where the bottleneck actually sits.
Los Angeles Must Restore Law Enforcement Before It Can Rebuild
Spencer Pratt frames his Los Angeles mayoral run as a response to basic government failure, beginning with the Palisades fire that destroyed his home. He argues that Los Angeles stopped doing core public work — enforcing laws, preparing for fires, tracking public money and approving building — and says recovery depends first on public-safety enforcement, audits of institutions spending taxpayer funds and replacing bureaucratic discretion with accountable management.
SpaceX-Anthropic Deal Highlights Compute as AI’s Revenue Bottleneck
The All-In panel used SpaceX’s compute deal with Anthropic to argue that frontier AI is now being constrained less by demand than by access to power, GPUs and data-center capacity. David Sacks warned that Anthropic’s reported revenue trajectory could make it a historic monopoly if sustained, while Brad Gerstner pushed back that the market is still too early and competitive for pre-emptive regulation. The discussion turned on whether AI safety concerns justify coordination with government or risk becoming an “FDA for AI,” and whether the AI boom will ultimately show up as measurable productivity and profit for customers buying tokens.