AI Policy and Geopolitics
National AI strategies, export controls, chip restrictions, global competition, public-sector adoption, and geopolitical implications.
AI Competition Will Turn on Model Rules, Data Control, and Power
All-In panelists David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya and David Friedberg argue that AI policy is becoming a contest over who controls model approvals, enterprise data and the power needed for data centers. Sacks backs Demis Hassabis’s proposal for a narrowly focused, industry-led safety body over a conventional AI regulator, provided it does not become a gatekeeper for incumbent labs; the panel makes a parallel case against state data-center moratoria and closed enterprise AI stacks that could limit cheaper alternatives.
American Resilience Depends on Defending Civic Rather Than Hereditary Institutions
The American inheritance is civic rather than hereditary, and its durability depends on institutions that are defended rather than merely celebrated. Karl Rove warned that treating American identity as a matter of ancestry reverses the Declaration’s anti-aristocratic premise, while Kori Schake and Jane Harman argued that political pressure on the military and failures of constitutional restraint put democratic norms at risk. Their shared case was that American resilience is a historical record, not a guarantee.
Security Plans Fail Without Legitimate Political Authority
Salam Fayyad, Kim Ghattas, Amaney Jamal and Herro Mustafa argue that the Middle East’s security crises cannot be resolved through military pressure or technocratic arrangements alone. In Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq, they say, armed groups can be constrained only by institutions with the authority, capacity and political legitimacy to govern; regional integration, meanwhile, remains tied to Palestinian statehood rather than efforts to bypass it.
Iran’s Military Losses Have Not Ended Its Leverage Over Hormuz
Former U.S. national security official Robert Greenway argues that U.S. military action has reduced Iran’s nuclear, missile and drone capabilities enough to justify eliminating its remaining ability to threaten regional trade and energy flows. Senator Chris Murphy counters that Tehran’s survival and continued leverage over the Strait of Hormuz have left Washington with a weaker hand in any future negotiation. Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour adds that a militarily diminished Iran may nonetheless emerge more confident that coercion works.
Safadi Says Regional Security Requires Palestinian Statehood and Sovereign Borders
Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi argues that the region’s wars cannot be contained through ceasefires or military arrangements alone: durable security requires respect for state sovereignty, lawful access to shipping and humanitarian aid, and a political path to Palestinian statehood. In a conversation moderated by NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, Safadi says Jordan supports diplomacy with Iran, a gradual restoration of Lebanon’s state control over weapons, and Gaza aid access independent of stalled governance plans, while warning that Israeli settlement expansion is closing off the two-state solution.
Türkiye’s S-400 Dispute Still Blocks a Deeper U.S. Defense Relationship
Akif Çağatay Kılıç, Türkiye’s chief adviser on national security and foreign policy, argues that Ankara’s geography requires it to keep working relationships open across rival blocs, from NATO and the EU to Russia, Ukraine and Iran. He presents Türkiye as a venue for diplomacy rather than a power able to dictate settlements, while acknowledging that its own defense ties with the United States remain constrained by the unresolved dispute over its Russian S-400 system and access to F-35 aircraft.
Thinking Machines Bets on Open Weights and Fine-Tuning Services
Thinking Machines Lab is positioning its first model, Inkling, as an open-weight system built for customer customization rather than as the industry’s benchmark leader, TBPN’s John Coogan argues. Led by former OpenAI technology chief Mira Murati, the company pairs the model with a fine-tuning service that could let customers retain control of the weights while paying Thinking Machines to adapt and operate them. Coogan and Tyler Cosgrove also question how cleanly Inkling can be described as free of distillation, given its reported use of synthetic data from another open-weight model.
Saronic Plans $3.2 Billion Texas Shipyard for Autonomous Vessels
Saronic Technologies plans to spend $3.2 billion building Port Alpha, a Brownsville shipyard for medium- and large-class autonomous surface vessels that CEO Dino Mavrookas says would address a severe shortfall in U.S. shipbuilding capacity. He says the greenfield project could create 10,000 jobs and eventually reach 2 million gross tons of annual capacity, while Governor Greg Abbott argues Texas can supply the workforce through its technical colleges and expanding Rio Grande Valley infrastructure. Mavrookas also casts the yard as a national-security asset following the reported combat use of Saronic technology in the Iran conflict.
Military Leverage Alone Cannot Secure Lasting Political Outcomes
Former national security officials Stephen Hadley, Robert O’Brien and Michèle Flournoy, alongside AEI’s Marc Thiessen, disagreed over whether Trump’s use of military force, tariffs and allied pressure can produce arrangements that last beyond his presidency. Thiessen and O’Brien argued that coercion has forced overdue changes in allied defense spending and constrained adversaries; Flournoy and Hadley warned that military damage, strained alliances and inconsistent signals do not by themselves constitute strategy. Their central question was whether immediate leverage can be converted into durable deterrence, political settlements and institutions.
Democratic Transitions in the Americas Depend on Public Ownership
Democratic transitions in the Americas risk losing legitimacy when security-first or externally coordinated roadmaps lack credible evidence that power will change hands and domestic political ownership. Leopoldo López argued that Venezuela needs visible steps toward a credible election and the dismantling of repressive institutions; OAS secretary general Albert Ramdin backed country-specific pathways that extend beyond elections to durable governance. Former Haitian foreign minister Dominique Dupuy warned that Haiti’s prolonged interim rule shows how transition plans can perpetuate exclusion when the public remains outside the political process.
Tariff Access Is Becoming a Supply-Chain Security Test
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer argues that U.S. trade policy should use tariffs, market access and security conditions to redirect production toward the United States and North America while limiting exposure to China-linked supply chains. He describes a durable hierarchy of access—not a return to pre-tariff trade—in which companies can plan around known rates but must meet stricter origin, investment and export-control rules. China, in his account, is a commercial relationship to be bounded rather than reformed through negotiation.
Japan Recasts Economic Security as Deterrence Against Coercion
Former Japanese national security adviser Shigeru Kitamura argues that Japan must treat military deterrence, economic resilience, technological protection and alliance coordination as parts of a single strategy against coercion that begins well below the threshold of war. With China’s military expansion and economic leverage reshaping the regional balance, he says Japan should reduce one-sided dependencies while building technological and industrial capabilities that make it strategically indispensable. The US-Japan alliance, in his account, must turn that approach into coordinated action on supply chains, critical technologies, energy and defense capacity.
Texas Uses State Grants to Build a Commercial-Space Cluster
Texas is building a statewide commercial-space industry around NASA talent in Houston, launch sites on the coast and in West Texas, and manufacturing and testing operations in Central Texas. Bloomberg reports that state grants are reinforcing a model in which NASA contracts help companies finance early development, while Texas offers industrial capacity and a business-friendly environment to keep them expanding locally. Loren Grush, Bloomberg’s space reporter, says SpaceX’s scale has made the strategy more visible—and its environmental and local costs around Boca Chica harder to ignore.
Free Societies Must Adapt Without Abandoning Their Ideals
Anja Manuel, executive director of the Aspen Strategy Group and Aspen Security Forum, argued that rapid shifts in artificial intelligence, conflict and economic power require leaders to test “too hard, audacious” ideas rather than merely react to events. Opening the forum, she said adaptation must remain anchored in the ideals of free societies, as technology, wars and new growth centres reshape the international order.
Weak Civilian Institutions Are Pulling Indonesia’s Military Into Governance
Norman Joshua argues that Indonesia’s 2025 expansion of the military’s role into cybersecurity, border management and disaster response reflects a broader model of “governance through security,” in which the armed forces compensate for weak civilian administration. While Indonesia faces legitimate defense and regional-security pressures, he contends that assigning civilian functions to security institutions blurs democratic lines of accountability and can entrench the military in domestic governance. His proposed remedy is stronger civilian capacity, not a diminished defense posture.
Political Disengagement Cedes Power Over Daily Life
Katie Paris argues that opting out of politics does not remove politics from a person’s life; it cedes power over decisions that shape it. With anti-career coach Danielle Roberts, she makes the case that civic participation begins in local institutions and trusted relationships, while Roberts argues that time, rest, joy and community are necessary to sustain that engagement.
AI Safety Requires a Verified Slowdown Before Autonomous Research
Former OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo argues that the decisive AI milestone may arrive before mass job loss makes the threat visible: labs are trying to automate AI research itself, potentially accelerating progress toward superintelligent systems beyond human control. He separates the risk of losing control of opaque systems from the risk that a few companies or states retain control of them, and says competitive pressure makes voluntary restraint unreliable. His proposed alternative, “Plan A,” is a government-backed, internationally verified slowdown paired with transparency, safety research and broader distribution of AI’s gains.
Frontier AI Labs Face an Enterprise ROI Test
The panel’s central dispute is whether frontier AI labs can sustain premium pricing as enterprises shift routine work to cheaper models and begin demanding returns on rising token spend. Chamath Palihapitiya argued that customer ROI remains thin and could make current revenue growth fragile, while Altimeter’s Brad Gerstner said frontier capability will retain value in high-stakes research, engineering, and discovery—supporting potential trillion-dollar IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI. The group also cast sovereign AI, China’s possible restrictions on model access, and Trump Accounts as contests over who controls strategic technology and long-term asset ownership.
Partisan Identity Is Reshaping Religious Belief and Political Mobilization
University of Notre Dame political scientist David Campbell argues that religion and politics shape each other: partisan identity can drive changes in religious affiliation, moral judgment, and the meaning Americans attach to labels such as Christian or secular. In a Faith Angle Forum discussion with New York Times *Believing* newsletter writer Lauren Jackson, he says Republican appeals to threatened Christian identity remain potent but limited, while Jackson hears from religiously and politically unsettled readers seeking belonging, hope, and a public language that does not reduce faith to a voting bloc.
AI Growth Depends on Power, Permitting, and Broader Ownership
BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink used an Aspen Ideas Festival conversation with Fareed Zakaria to argue that AI can sustain a new phase of U.S. growth only if the country builds the physical infrastructure behind it. Fink’s case was that power grids, data centers, skilled labor, faster permitting and deeper capital markets matter as much as algorithms — and that the political test is whether more households can own a share of the gains rather than watch them accrue to a narrow set of companies and investors.
Fable and Mythos Recall Targets the Wrong AI Cyber Risk
Alex Stamos, the former Facebook chief security officer and current Corridor chief product officer, argues that the U.S. government’s forced pullback of Anthropic’s Fable and Mythos models misidentified the real cybersecurity threshold in AI. In his account, the decisive shift came earlier with models such as Opus 4 and GPT-5, which made elite vulnerability discovery scalable, while Fable’s risks were not meaningfully distinct from capabilities already available in other U.S. and Chinese models. Stamos says policy should target exploit creation and offensive operations, not bug-finding itself, or risk weakening defenders and making U.S. AI less reliable.
Better Models Are Becoming Tools for Producing More Compute
The source argues that AI progress is becoming recursive: more compute trains stronger models, and stronger models can help design chips, optimize clusters, and produce the next round of compute. It uses a Columbia University paper on LLM-generated Verilog, tree-of-thoughts search, and RTL-based reinforcement learning as evidence that models are entering evaluable hardware-design loops. The same premise drives its Europe 2031 forecast: without multi-billion-dollar compute commitments and frontier infrastructure, Europe risks becoming dependent on American and Chinese AI systems rather than competing at the frontier.
AI Engineering Is Moving From Model Benchmarks to Production Harnesses
Shawn “swyx” Wang argues that AI engineering is shifting from a race over raw model capability to the production systems that make models usable: evals, harnesses, memory, routing, infrastructure and auditability. Drawing on Cognition’s Frontier Code benchmark and his view of the AI Engineer agenda, Wang says the key software frontier is no longer whether agents can pass tests, but whether they can produce maintainable, mergeable code inside real organizations. His broader case is that unstable model access and enterprise constraints make the surrounding system, not the model alone, the durable product boundary.
SpaceX, Anthropic, and Iran Test the Case Against Centralized Power
The All-In panel uses a week of fights over welfare, SpaceX, Anthropic and Iran to argue over who should hold power when risk is high: markets and individuals, or political and corporate gatekeepers. David Friedberg, David Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya cast much of the discussion as a warning against centralization, from benefit systems that can weaken agency to AI safety regimes that could hand control to governments and hyperscalers. Jason Calacanis shares parts of that concern but presses the practical tensions, especially in the Anthropic dispute and in Trump’s Iran memorandum, where he questions whether the war that produced a possible deal was necessary.