June 2026
In a Hoover Institution California update, Bill Whalen and Lee Ohanian argue that the state’s politics are being shaped by institutional strain more than any single scandal. They say the federal investigation of Gavin Newsom and Jennifer Siebel Newsom could help Newsom cast himself as a Trump target in a Democratic presidential race, while exposing family finances and behested payments to deeper scrutiny. They also frame California’s election rules, Xavier Becerra’s likely succession, and a possible deal to avert a billionaire wealth-tax ballot fight as evidence of a system increasingly governed by distrust, weak execution, and interest-group bargaining.
Dwarkesh Patel argues that recent AI progress is driven less by clear gains in sample efficiency than by an immense expansion of training data, including synthetic rollouts and highly specific human expert examples. In his account, frontier models can display broad professional competence because labs keep pushing more tasks into the training distribution, not because the systems learn new domains the way humans do. Patel says that data-heavy approach may still be commercially powerful when capabilities can be amortized across billions of uses, but it leaves unresolved whether current systems can solve their own sample-efficiency problem.
H.R. McMaster argues that the greatest danger to American security is not a lack of military power but a loss of strategic competence after the Cold War. In a Hoover Institution discussion, the former national security adviser says U.S. leaders mistook a temporary unipolar advantage for a lasting condition, underestimated the political nature of war, and failed to connect military action to achievable political outcomes. That failure, he argues, now meets a more dangerous environment in which China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are increasingly reinforcing one another.
H.R. McMaster argues that American strategy often fails not for lack of information but because officials allow untested assumptions to become policy. In a Hoover Institution discussion, the former national security adviser says U.S. approaches to China, Iran, Russia and Afghanistan repeatedly projected Washington’s hopes onto adversaries rather than examining their motives, ideology and incentives. His remedy is a more disciplined process: define the problem on its own terms, test assumptions, present leaders with real options, and weigh the risks of inaction as seriously as the risks of acting.
Figma co-founder and chief executive Dylan Field argues in a Hard Fork interview that AI is not killing design so much as making average work cheaper and more abundant. Field’s case is that writers, designers and software makers will be judged less on their ability to produce a first draft or prototype than on whether they can give it a distinctive voice, point of view and level of craft. He expects design work to broaden rather than disappear, even as AI labs push further into application software.
Károly Zsolnai-Fehér presents RecursiveMAS, a paper by Xiyuan Yang, Jiaru Zou and coauthors, as an attempt to fix a coordination cost in multi-agent AI systems: agents repeatedly translating internal work into English for one another. The paper’s claim is that agents can instead pass latent numerical representations directly, improving collaboration while cutting token use. Zsolnai-Fehér says the reported gains are substantial on small models, including better math results and far fewer tokens, but frames the work as early research rather than a deployable agent product.
TBPN hosts John Coogan and Jordi Hays read Midjourney Medical as a continuation of David Holz’s long-running work on sensing, interfaces and machine perception, rather than a sudden move from image generation into healthcare. Their account argues that Midjourney’s unusual business — bootstrapped, community-driven and cash-generative — has given Holz room to attempt a capital-intensive ultrasound scanning system with ambitions far beyond a conventional clinic device. The episode pairs that bet with OpenAI’s hiring of Noam Shazeer and Dean Ball as evidence that technical talent, policy capacity and institutional advantage are converging in AI.
Jake Paul and Anti Fund co-founder Geoffrey Woo argue that their venture firm is moving beyond celebrity access into institutional frontier investing, with an oversubscribed $100mn-plus growth fund and a focus on AI, defense, robotics, energy, hardware and other capital-intensive technologies. In a TBPN conversation, Paul frames his media career and boxing promotion business as evidence that he can help technical companies build distribution, while Woo says the firm’s thesis is shifting toward AI infrastructure and the physical world.
In a closing reflection at Shared Futures: The AI Forum, Patrick J. McGovern Foundation president Vilas Dhar argued that AI’s creative significance should be judged less by what machines can produce than by whether they help people recover agency as makers. Drawing on performances from the forum and a childhood memory of communal singing in India, Dhar framed the risk as passivity: a culture in which creativity is professionalized, distributed and consumed rather than shared. His cautious optimism was that AI could widen participation if it gives people without technical skills new ways to write, sing, build and imagine.
Jonathan Fulton tells Elizabeth Economy that China’s Middle East role is substantial but narrower than the recent hype suggests: Beijing is a major economic actor in the Gulf, yet remains a limited security and diplomatic player. In his account, the Iran crisis and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz underscored that regional governments may be frustrated with Washington but still rely on the U.S. security architecture because no other power can replace it. Fulton argues China is useful to Gulf states in trade, infrastructure, digital systems and energy, while its capacity to convert that influence into geopolitical power remains constrained.
OpenAI presents Record & Replay in Codex as a way to turn a demonstrated recurring workflow into an inspectable, editable skill. In the source example, a user records a YouTube upload process once, and Codex converts the observed steps, defaults and file conventions into a reusable `SKILL.md`. The argument is that repeat work can move from long prompts and remembered preferences to short invocations, with Codex applying the learned workflow to the next relevant task.
Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane argue that the draft U.S.-Iran memorandum looks less like a settlement than a political pause that gives Tehran money and time while leaving the nuclear question unresolved. In a Hoover GoodFellows discussion, they differ on whether unintended consequences could still weaken Iran’s regime, but largely agree that Washington had leverage in the Strait of Hormuz and failed to use it. They extend that concern to Ukraine and Cuba, framing the central problem as American pressure applied without follow-through.
Anjney Midha, AMP’s founder and an investor in frontier AI companies including Anthropic and Mistral, argues that AI’s infrastructure bottleneck is as much waste and misalignment as GPU scarcity. In a conversation with swyx at Periodic Labs, he makes the case for AMP as a neutral compute grid that would pool supply and demand so FLOPs can move more like megawatts. Midha ties that infrastructure thesis to a broader discipline he calls “output maxing”: raising utilization, reducing organizational loss, earning community trust for data centers, and making frontier systems deliver more useful work from scarce resources.
ElevenLabs presents Flows Agent as a conversational assistant for building and revising node-based creative workflows inside ElevenCreative Flows. The company’s case is that a user can describe an ad or other asset in natural language, have the agent assemble the models, prompts, nodes, and connections, then keep the resulting pipeline visible for edits, approvals, and reuse. The demo emphasizes cost controls for credit-heavy generation, node-level revisions through chat, and templates that turn a completed flow into a repeatable production system.
Hoover fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster and John Cochrane read the reported U.S.-Iran memorandum less as a peace settlement than as a bid to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while postponing the nuclear dispute and front-loading concessions to Tehran. They largely agree the draft looks weak; their disagreement is over whether it buys time for a harder strategy later, creates space for pressure inside Iran, or signals a loss of U.S. will that allies and adversaries will now test.
Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf told Bloomberg Technology that the company’s new US Air Force production contract is a test of whether it can turn an autonomous fighter prototype into a manufactured operational aircraft at scale. He argued that the same constraint now runs across defense: weapons, aircraft, space systems, and allied stockpiles are less limited by technical ambition than by whether the US and its partners can produce enough capability quickly enough for modern conflict.
Opening Shared Futures: The AI Forum, Vivian Schiller of Aspen Digital and Vilas Dhar of the Patrick J. McGovern Foundation argued that public distrust of AI is not an obstacle to the conversation but its starting point. Schiller framed AI as a contested tool that can either feel imposed on people or be used by artists and makers with agency; Dhar said the deeper issue is not the technology itself, but how people turn fear of replacement into meaning, art, and shared experience.
Retired Navy SEAL and former DEVGRU operator DJ Shipley argues that the deepest injury for many elite operators is not combat itself but the loss of the identity, brotherhood and purpose that made the rest of life subordinate. In a long interview with Chris Williamson, Shipley describes special operations as an all-consuming performance system built on risk, restraint and repetition, and retirement as the point where those habits kept running without a mission. His account links that rupture to addiction, family breakdown, suicidal intent and, eventually, psychedelic treatment and confession as the basis for recovery.
Sam Parr and Shaan Puri use Hannah Neeleman’s Ballerina Farm as a case study in how a personal aesthetic can become a large consumer business when the life, content and products appear to come from the same system. Their argument is narrower than “sell a lifestyle”: the strongest brands show visible work and transformation, then sell products that feel like artifacts of that world. The model, they argue, depends on committing to an identity publicly rather than merely borrowing its imagery.
Vice President JD Vance casts his politics as the product of childhood instability, Iraq-era disillusionment, distrust of American institutions, and a return to Christianity after what he describes as secular ambition without virtue. Speaking with Steven Bartlett, Vance argues that those experiences explain his turn toward Donald Trump, his preference for limited war aims, his view that immigration must move at a pace communities can absorb, and his concern that AI will concentrate wealth and surveillance power. On Iran, he says the administration has secured a provisional term sheet, not a completed peace deal, with nuclear verification and enforcement still unresolved.
On Diet TBPN, John Coogan and Jordi Hays used Snap’s new Specs as the clearest case for a broader skepticism: technically strong demos do not answer whether a company can create demand, an ecosystem, or a rational return on capital. They argued that Snap’s AR work might look fundable as a startup but is harder to defend inside a public company whose stock has fallen sharply and whose core ads business could be run more profitably. The same standard shaped their read on Taste Labs, AI export-control fights, and SpaceX’s valuation: the hard question is whether impressive capability can be converted into durable business control.
Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman says Apple is preparing a dense 2026 and 2027 hardware cycle that includes its first foldable iPhone, a second-generation foldable, a 20th-anniversary iPhone and camera-equipped AirPods. Gurman argues the AirPods cameras are meant not for photography or facial recognition but to give Siri visual context about a user’s surroundings, while Snap’s new Specs show the same broader push toward ambient, augmented computing despite high prices and limited near-term adoption.
Makenzie Lystrup, a principal consultant at Peridot Services and former director of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, argues that orbital data centers should not be treated as one idea. In a Bloomberg Technology interview, she says near-term edge computing in orbit is plausible, while hyperscale AI infrastructure of the kind associated with SpaceX faces much harder constraints: power systems, heat rejection, radiation-tolerant hardware, networking, reliability and maintenance. Her central point is that the challenge is not merely launching servers into space, but operating them as space-qualified infrastructure.
Eugene Volokh and Jane Bambauer use an Ohio harassment dispute over sexually explicit Shrek images allegedly texted to a state senator to examine a harder First Amendment question: when offensive political speech becomes punishable direct harassment. Volokh argues that the law often distinguishes speech about a person from unwanted speech to a person, but says the doctrine is unsettled when the recipient is a government official, the channel is a phone, and the content is sexual but not obscene. Bambauer presses whether punishment should require notice to stop and whether statutes broad enough to reach unsolicited explicit images may also capture protected political criticism.