AI Policy and Geopolitics
National AI strategies, export controls, chip restrictions, global competition, public-sector adoption, and geopolitical implications.
Allied Planning Must Account for a Low-Probability U.S. Expansion Risk
A participant who says he has studied Trump rallies and violent populism argues that Canada, Greenland and Venezuela should treat U.S. territorial rhetoric as a planning risk, even if invasion remains unlikely. He ties the danger to a stronger MAGA coalition after the 2028 election and says Trump’s talk of borders, resources and Greenland has become more consequential since his return to power. Other participants offer possible motives, including demographic pressure, while one cautions that U.S. political division has historical precedents and need not signal national rupture.
Self-Government Depends on Distinct Citizenship and Civic Assimilation
Victor Davis Hanson argues that American self-government rests on citizenship as a distinct political status, reinforced by assimilation into a common civic culture, a broad economically independent middle class, and national allegiance stronger than ethnic or other group loyalties. He contends that blurred lines between citizenship and residence, large-scale immigration without sufficient incorporation, economic dependency, and identity-based politics are weakening the conditions on which consensual government depends.
Compute Independence Will Determine Whether AI Becomes Economic Capacity
Sarah Guo, founder of AI-focused venture firm Conviction, argues that the contest over artificial intelligence will be decided not only by frontier models but by the industrial capacity to deploy them: compute, energy, supply chains, data centers and robotics. She makes the case for a competitive Western AI ecosystem built around compute independence and open models, while warning that physical bottlenecks and political resistance could leave the US dependent on a narrow set of providers and foreign supply chains. For investors, Guo’s framework is to form a technical and commercial view early, then test it against evidence before consensus arrives.
Taiwan Deterrence Depends on Allied Industry, Logistics, and AI
Hoover Fellow Eyck Freymann argues that the United States has a narrowing five-to-eight-year window to deter Chinese coercion or military action against Taiwan, as China’s local missile, industrial and geographic advantages outpace many U.S. long-term defense programs. In conversation with economist Michael Boskin, he contends that deterrence will depend less on any single weapon than on a resilient system of allied access, logistics, undersea forces, air defenses, secure supply chains and privately developed AI and space capabilities.
Radiant Wins $750 Million Army Contract for 15 Microreactors
Radiant has won a $750 million Army contract to supply 15 of the 20 portable microreactors planned under the Janus program, an award President and COO Tori Shivanandan says reflects the military’s confidence in the company’s technology and manufacturing capacity. Shivanandan argues that Radiant’s one-megawatt Kaleidos reactors offer the Army a more resilient energy model by bringing generation directly to where power is needed. The company must now complete testing at Idaho National Laboratory, deliver its next reactor to a military base in 2028, and scale production.
Anthropic Wins Court Order but Faces No Pentagon Procurement Guarantee
Bloomberg’s Rachel Metz reports that a California judge has ordered the Trump administration to lift its supply-chain-risk designation against Anthropic, finding it inadequately justified and partly intended to make an example of the AI company. The ruling does not require the Pentagon to use Anthropic’s products, Metz says, and a separate case in Washington remains unresolved. Separately, Anthropic, OpenAI and more than 100 organizations are warning that increasingly capable AI models could make cyberattacks more widespread even as they strengthen cyber defense.
LIV Golf Seeks New Funding as Saudi Support Recedes
LIV Golf’s future is uncertain as Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund prepares to end its backing and the league seeks new financing, Bloomberg reports. League leader Scott O’Neil says a lead investor has signed a board-approved term sheet, though the deal is nonbinding; Bloomberg’s Reshmi Basu identifies BC Partners as the prospective investor and says potential backers have questioned the player equity required. The league must now show it can become a commercial business after more than $5 billion in Saudi spending failed to produce a television audience comparable with the PGA Tour’s.
Coexistence Is Necessary but Peace Remains Unlikely
Barry Strauss argues that criticism of Israeli policy, including the Netanyahu government, is distinct from denying Israel’s right to exist—a distinction he says is obscured by antisemitism at political extremes. He maintains that Jewish historical ties to the land do not justify excluding Palestinians, but says lasting coexistence requires Palestinian acceptance of Israel as well as changes shaped by outside powers, particularly Iran and the United States. Strauss sees little reason to expect such a settlement soon.
Peer Review and Grant Funding Have Made Scientific Dissent Too Costly
Eric Weinstein argues that grant funding, peer review and university hierarchies make dissent professionally irrational by tying publication, jobs, funding and legitimacy to prevailing views. He proposes that government fund exceptional scientists over long periods rather than narrowly defined projects, even when their work is unpopular or likely to fail. But his alternative depends on discretionary judgments by formidable scientists, without resolving who selects them or how their choices are held accountable. He warns that China and AI could exploit neglected ideas if US institutions continue to treat them as professionally hazardous.
Chatbots Need Held-Out Benchmarks for Politics, Medicine, and Mental Health
Forum AI chief executive Campbell Brown argues that chatbots answering questions about elections, medicine, mental health and contested politics need independent standards for factual accuracy, source quality, context and safe escalation—not just vendors’ own assurances. She says domain experts should define held-out benchmarks that assess how models handle uncertainty and competing claims without prescribing political conclusions. Brown also warns that the reporting ecosystem AI draws on may be weakened by the same systems, while engagement-driven AI companions could reward affirmation over reliability.
Reliable Information Is a Prerequisite for Self-Government
Vivian Schiller, Aspen Digital’s executive director, argues that the program’s central concern is whether people can access the reliable, independent information needed for self-government—not simply whether journalism institutions survive. She traces Aspen Digital’s work from its communications-policy roots through cybersecurity, local news and AI, contending that technology now shapes public understanding across nearly every policy field. Her chief AI concern is not a single viral deepfake but the broader “liar’s dividend”: a flood of fabricated or contested material that leaves people unsure what is real.
American Strategy Succeeds When Force Serves Bounded Political Aims
Brookings senior fellow Michael O’Hanlon argues in To Dare Mighty Things that American strategy works best when military power, alliances and deterrence serve a bounded political purpose—and fails when force is asked to remake societies or achieve ends leaders have not clearly defined. In a conversation with Hoover’s Michael Boskin, O’Hanlon calls this approach “resolute restraint”: maintain credible power and defend vital interests, but commit to war only when its objectives, means and durable political support align.
Stablecoins Could Expand Dollar Use and Concentrate Demand for Treasury Bills
Nellie Liang of the Brookings Institution argues that stablecoins could widen global access to dollar-denominated value and add demand for Treasury bills, but only if their growth expands the dollar market rather than shifts money from existing dollar instruments. In her paper with Brent Neiman, Liang contends that the potential gains in payments and dollar use carry policy costs: regulators must address illicit-finance risks and possible losses of bank lending, while Treasury must account for reserve demand concentrated in short-term debt.
Castelion Raises $1 Billion to Scale Low-Cost Hypersonic Weapons
Castelion’s central challenge is not building a hypersonic weapon but manufacturing thousands of them at low cost, according to co-founder and CFO Andrew Kreitz. The defense startup, valued at $13 billion after raising $1 billion, plans to begin producing its Blackbeard strike system next year while advancing a larger long-range weapon and interceptors. Kreitz says his experience in SpaceX’s finance organization shaped the company’s view that defense-system costs reflect supply-chain choices and customer incentives, not an unavoidable constraint.
Fuse Raises $100 Million to Commercialize Fusion Radiation Testing
Fuse CEO JC Btaiche says the company’s $100 million financing will fund faster, cheaper production of fusion generators while supporting a radiation-testing service already operating for customers. He argues that commercialization will depend less on scientific milestones than on repeatedly building and operating hardware, with private companies playing a central role in helping the US counter China’s investment and construction pace in fusion.
Unitree’s 460% Debut Prices China’s Humanoid-Robot Lead
Bloomberg’s Peter Elstrom says Unitree Robotics’ 460% Shanghai debut, following a 6.1 billion yuan IPO, gave public investors a roughly $50 billion valuation for China’s early lead in humanoid-robot manufacturing. He argues that Unitree’s shipments, domestic supply chain and state backing distinguish China in a still immature market, while stressing that tens of thousands of robots remain a small base for the industry’s much larger demand projections.
Permitting Delays and Construction Costs Threaten Affordable U.S. Energy
Steven Davis of the Hoover Institution argues that America’s relatively low energy prices—an advantage for households and industry—are at risk as electricity demand rises from data centres, industrial expansion and other uses. He says the United States will need new generation, transmission and distribution capacity, but that building it affordably requires cutting tariffs on construction inputs, easing occupational licensing barriers and reforming permitting and environmental reviews that add years of cost and uncertainty.
Allied Coordination Is the Missing Link in Taiwan Deterrence
Eyck Freymann argues that preventing conflict over Taiwan requires the US and its allies to coordinate political, military, strategic, and economic power rather than rely on American military strength alone. China can pressure Taiwan through blockade, coercion, and economic measures short of invasion, he says, while allied governments remain organized around separate national policies and bureaucratic silos. The deterrent resources exist, Freymann contends; what is missing is the joint planning and trusted relationships needed to use them in a crisis.
AI Infrastructure May Outrun the Capital Needed to Finance It
Ben Thompson argues that the AI boom’s central risk is not that the technology fails, but that its infrastructure buildout exhausts available financing before AI revenue can support it. On Invest Like the Best, he compares the mismatch between short-term capital and long-lived assets to the railroad era: a financial bust could hurt the companies and investors funding the buildout without stopping AI’s broader economic impact. He says the likely survivors are companies such as Amazon and Google that can finance capacity cheaply and put it to work inside existing businesses while external demand develops.
Anthropic’s IPO Would Test Whether AI Token Demand Can Fund Compute
All-In’s panel, joined by investor Gavin Baker, argues that Anthropic’s reported $2 trillion IPO would be a critical test of whether customer demand for AI can sustain the debt-financed compute buildout behind it. David Sacks calls Anthropic the industry’s “pace car”: continued growth would support spending across cloud capacity, chips and power, while a demand-led slowdown could trigger a broader pileup. The discussion also weighs whether cheaper open models and Grok will erode frontier labs’ pricing power—or expand the market while leaving a premium for leading systems.
Norway Treats Arctic Security and Energy Infrastructure as One Defense Problem
Ine Eriksen Søreide, leader of Norway’s Conservative Party, argues that Norway’s Arctic position, offshore energy infrastructure and maritime role place it on the front line of a broader contest over European security. She says NATO’s principal test is increasingly likely to come through cyberattacks, sabotage and other gray-zone coercion designed to expose political divisions before an Article 5 response is clear. In her account, sustaining Ukraine, securing critical infrastructure and reducing industrial dependencies are parts of the same long-term task: adapting allied defense to a durable confrontation with Russia and its partners.
Britain’s Wartime Diplomats Turned Declining Power Into Lasting Influence
Lord Peter Ricketts, former head of Britain’s Diplomatic Service, argues that the wartime Foreign Office was not a ceremonial adjunct to military power but an instrument for sustaining alliances, securing access and preparing the political order after victory. Unable to match American or Soviet scale, Britain used diplomats to keep de Gaulle aligned, hold Spain outside the Axis, support governments in exile and build the institutions through which it could retain influence after 1945. Ricketts also contends that this work exposed the costs of the service’s narrow recruitment and exclusion of women.
AI Has Shifted the Competitive Frontier for Software Incumbents
Benchmark general partner Eric Vishria argues that AI is moving the competitive frontier for software faster than incumbents can respond by adding features to existing roadmaps. In his view, companies can destroy value while executing a pre-AI plan because model capabilities are weakening old switching costs, changing what customers value, and demanding products built around AI’s uneven, rapidly shifting capabilities. Vishria also contends that the market can support major winners across models, infrastructure and applications, though power, deployment expertise and operational execution will determine who captures the value.
Brazil’s Deforestation Crackdown May Be Shifting Pressure Into Bolivia
Brazil’s tougher enforcement helped cut Amazon deforestation, but Bloomberg’s Fabiano Maisonnave reports that clearing is accelerating across the border in Bolivia’s Santa Cruz department, where industrial agriculture is advancing toward San Ignacio de Velasco. Environmental researcher Sandra Cuellar says 78% of Bolivia’s deforestation occurs in Santa Cruz, while Maisonnave raises the question of whether Brazilian commodity producers are shifting pressure into a frontier where land ownership is difficult to trace. A confidential meeting between Brazilian producers and Bolivian and Brazilian ministers has added to concerns over who will control the expansion and what it will mean for the remaining forest.