Robert Pape
Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and director and founder of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST). He researches international security, military strategy, terrorism, and American political violence, including survey-based research on political violence and the January 6 insurrection.
Allied Planning Must Account for a Low-Probability U.S. Expansion Risk
A participant who says he has studied Trump rallies and violent populism argues that Canada, Greenland and Venezuela should treat U.S. territorial rhetoric as a planning risk, even if invasion remains unlikely. He ties the danger to a stronger MAGA coalition after the 2028 election and says Trump’s talk of borders, resources and Greenland has become more consequential since his return to power. Other participants offer possible motives, including demographic pressure, while one cautions that U.S. political division has historical precedents and need not signal national rupture.
Iran’s Control of Hormuz Is Driving the U.S. Toward Ground War
University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape argues that the Iran war has left Tehran with its most consequential gain: practical control over the Strait of Hormuz, giving it leverage over oil flows that air strikes and a blockade have failed to reverse. As energy disruption deepens, Pape says the White House may turn to a limited ground operation on Iran’s coast—not because it would reopen the strait, but because it could demonstrate action. He puts the chance of U.S. troops entering Iran in the near term at about 70% and warns that ground control would raise the risk of a wider, more durable conflict.