Iran’s Control of Hormuz Is Driving the U.S. Toward Ground War
University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape argues that the Iran war has left Tehran with its most consequential gain: practical control over the Strait of Hormuz, giving it leverage over oil flows that air strikes and a blockade have failed to reverse. As energy disruption deepens, Pape says the White House may turn to a limited ground operation on Iran’s coast—not because it would reopen the strait, but because it could demonstrate action. He puts the chance of U.S. troops entering Iran in the near term at about 70% and warns that ground control would raise the risk of a wider, more durable conflict.
The Diary of a CEO·Jul 23, 2026·18 min read
