Gavin Baker
Founder, Managing Partner and CIO of Atreides Management, LP, a Boston-based crossover investment firm focused on technology and consumer companies across public and private markets. Baker previously spent 18 years at Fidelity Investments, where he managed the Fidelity OTC Fund, and is a recurring Invest Like the Best guest discussing AI, semiconductors, frontier models, and technology investing.
SpaceX’s Public-Market Case Now Runs Through AI Compute
Gavin Baker, in a TBPN conversation following the SpaceX IPO, argues that the company’s public-market case is not mainly a long-dated bet on Mars. He says SpaceX could become one of the most important companies in history because it is positioned around nearer-term AI infrastructure scarcity: energized gigawatts, fast data-center deployment, high-value token production and, eventually, orbital compute enabled by reusable launch. Baker also frames retail capital, sovereign AI and semiconductor bottleneck trades through that same question of who controls durable capacity in the AI endgame.
Private-Company Secondaries Hit $248 Billion as IPO Alternatives Grow
Brad Gerstner, Gavin Baker and Kelly Rodriques argue on an All-In secondary-markets panel that private-company share trading has moved from a workaround for employees and early investors into a major exit route competing with IPOs and acquisitions. Their case is that companies are staying private long enough to create a structural liquidity problem for employees, venture funds and LPs, while platforms such as Forge are trying to turn that demand into permissioned market infrastructure. The panel also warns that broader access does not make late-stage private shares cheap, especially in famous AI, space and defense names.
AI Infrastructure Demand Is Becoming Revenue, Contracts, and Market Stress
Gavin Baker joined the All-In panel to argue that AI’s economics are becoming tangible: Anthropic’s reported profitability, surging LLM revenue, Nvidia’s results, and SpaceX’s compute contracts all point to infrastructure demand that is no longer speculative. The group framed SpaceX’s potential $2 trillion valuation as a bet on Starlink, launch, and AI compute rather than current earnings, while Baker defended Nvidia against share-loss and GPU-useful-life bear cases. The counterweight was political and macro risk: public backlash to AI, labor displacement, regulation, higher inflation, rising yields, and U.S.-China tension.
TSMC’s Wafer Scarcity May Be Preventing an AI Overbuild
Investor Gavin Baker argues on Invest Like The Best that the AI boom is being organized less by software adoption than by scarcity: compute demand is outrunning power, wafers, and frontier-model access. In his account, Anthropic’s growth, Nvidia’s position, TSMC’s capacity discipline, and even SpaceX’s possible orbital compute are all expressions of the same constraint. Baker’s central claim is that the AI cycle may avoid a classic infrastructure bubble only if physical bottlenecks, especially leading-edge wafer supply, keep capital from building far ahead of demand.