Sarah Paine
Historian and geopolitical strategist Sarah Paine is Professor Emerita of History and Grand Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College, where she taught strategy from 2000 until her 2025 retirement. Her work focuses on China, Russia, and Japan, geopolitics, and maritime strategy.
Unlimited War Aims Can Turn Losing Nations Into More Dangerous Opponents
Historian and strategist Sarah Paine argues that the danger of a wider war lies not only in leaders’ decisions to fight, but in aims that leave opponents no acceptable way to stop. In an interview, the retired U.S. Naval War College professor says the Iran war risks worsening the threat it is meant to contain, while weakening alliances and the maritime rules that underpin trade and prosperity. Governments, she argues, should manage conflicts and prevent catastrophe rather than pursue goals that make escalation more likely.
Japan’s Limited Aims Helped End the Russo-Japanese War on Favorable Terms
Sarah Paine argues that wars are easier to start than to end, and hardest to end on favorable terms. Using the Russo-Japanese War as her main example, she says Japan secured a favorable settlement by keeping its aims limited, recognizing what it could not afford to sustain, and preparing a route to negotiation before its military position deteriorated. She warns that expanding war aims, inviting outside powers into a conflict, or mistaking conventional victories for lasting control can make a settlement harder to reach.
Geography Keeps Russia and China Trapped in Continental Power Politics
Military historian Sarah Paine argues that Russia and China’s strategic behavior is rooted less in ideology than in geography. In this lecture, she contrasts continental powers, which seek security through territory, buffers and mass armies, with maritime powers such as Britain and the United States, which can use the sea as a shield and build wealth through trade, alliances and rules for the commons. Her case is that Russia and China may want the benefits of maritime power, but their borders, neighbors and constrained sea access keep pulling them back toward the older logic of land empire.