Douglas Rivers

Falling Approval and Independent Shifts Point to Democratic House Gains

Stanford political scientists David Brady and Douglas Rivers see a plausible path to a Democratic wave in the 2026 midterms, particularly in the House, where Brady estimates the party could gain about 30 seats. Brady bases that forecast on falling presidential approval and a shift among independent voters, while Rivers is more cautious about race-by-race predictions but says the overall direction is easier to estimate. They warn that voter dissatisfaction with Donald Trump does not necessarily amount to support for Democrats, leaving the party’s Senate prospects and post-election strategy less certain.