Steven Davis
Economist and podcast host; Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, Senior Fellow at Stanford SIEPR, and host of Hoover’s Economics, Applied video podcast.
America’s Drug-Death Crisis Began With Chronic-Pain Prescribing
Economists William Evans and Ethan Lieber argue that America’s drug-death crisis began with a domestic medical failure: a late-1990s shift toward prescribing opioids for chronic pain, reinforced by pharmaceutical promotion and regulatory acceptance. In Steven Davis’s interview, they trace how counties with more underlying pain were hit hardest, how OxyContin made the shift more dangerous, and why the crisis later moved from prescription drugs into heroin and fentanyl. Their account leaves little comfort for current policy: correcting prescribing practices may address the original channel, but most deaths now come from illicit fentanyl markets that are far harder to control.
Central Banks Face Accountability Tests Across Independence, Reserves, and Stability Policy
At a Hoover Institution conference on central-bank independence, Marvin Barth, Darrell Duffie and Christina Skinner each framed the next phase of monetary and financial policy as an accountability problem. Barth argued that the Federal Reserve’s policy failures and lack of humility have weakened its political legitimacy; Duffie said shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet depends on changing reserve demand and payment mechanics, not simply selling assets; and Skinner argued that financial stability policy should weigh growth and economic security rather than treating every visible risk reduction as a net gain.
Fed Officials Call for Better Classification Tools Under Economic Uncertainty
At a Hoover Institution policy panel on central-bank independence, structure and emerging risks, Federal Reserve officials Michelle Bowman, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee and Christopher Waller each argued that the Fed’s next problems turn on classifying risks before they are obvious in hindsight. Bowman focused on capital rules and private credit, Daly on distinguishing temporary from persistent inflation shocks, Goolsbee on whether expected AI productivity gains lower or raise the appropriate rate path, and Waller on which Fed functions require regional autonomy rather than centralized operations.
The American Dream Is Weakening Where Competition and Mobility Are Blocked
In a Hoover Institution discussion moderated by Washington Post columnist Megan McArdle, economists John Cochrane, Valerie Ramey and Ross Levine argue that American prosperity has depended less on wealth itself than on institutions and habits that allow competition, risk-taking, mobility and disruption. They differ on emphasis — Cochrane stresses limits on government and regulatory failure, Levine competition joined to justice and stability, and Ramey education, culture and immigration — but converge on a warning that the American Dream weakens when schools fail, incumbents are protected, fiscal space erodes and politics stops doing routine maintenance.
Supply-Chain Chokepoints Turn Cheap Inputs Into Geopolitical Leverage
In a Hoover Institution discussion with Steven Davis, trade policy experts Chad Bown and Soumaya Keynes argue that the real danger in cross-border supply chains is not import dependence in general, but concentrated control over inputs that firms cannot quickly replace. Bown points to China’s 2025 restrictions on rare earths, permanent magnets and Nexperia chips as cases where upstream chokepoints threatened auto production more effectively than reciprocal tariffs. Keynes cautions that governments need sharper vulnerability mapping, but that information alone will not make private firms pay the cost of resilience when cheaper, efficient supply chains remain available.
China Could Pressure Taiwan Into Submission Without Invading
In Defending Taiwan, Eyck Freymann argues that U.S. strategy is too narrowly focused on deterring a Chinese invasion and is underprepared for a gray-zone crisis that could isolate Taiwan without open war. Freymann’s case, developed in discussion with Hoover Institution participants including Philip Zelikow, is that Beijing’s most plausible path may be legal, commercial, and coercive control over Taiwan’s external ties. Deterrence, he argues, will require Washington and its allies to integrate military power with political discipline, economic planning, technological leverage, and diplomatic coordination before such a crisis begins.
Noncompete Enforcement Reduces Mobility and Innovation Despite Firm Investment Claims
Economists Steven Davis and Evan Starr examine whether states should enforce noncompete agreements, a contract tool Starr says now reaches well beyond executives and trade-secret holders to low-wage workers, interns, and janitors. Starr argues the evidence points to weak worker consent, continued use of unenforceable clauses, and lower innovation where noncompetes are enforced; Davis presses the countercase that some clauses may protect legitimate firm investments in training, clients, or confidential information. Their disagreement centers on whether law can distinguish those uses cheaply enough, or whether broader bans and bright-line rules are the better response.