Max Kapustin

Assistant Professor in Cornell University's Department of Economics and Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy, and an affiliate of the University of Chicago Crime Lab. He studies interventions to reduce gun violence and improve outcomes for disadvantaged youth and adults, using large-scale experiments and empirical methods to evaluate programs such as cognitive behavioral therapy, employment interventions, mentorship, predictive risk tools, and data-driven police management.

Focused Deterrence Helped Baltimore Cut Homicides Without Saturation Policing

Steven Davis’s interview with economists Aaron Chalfin and Max Kapustin examines Baltimore’s 2022 adoption of focused deterrence, a strategy aimed at the small number of people, groups, and disputes driving serious gun violence. Chalfin and Kapustin argue that the evidence does not prove the strategy caused Baltimore’s full 60% homicide decline, but that district-level comparisons, crime-specific declines, and changes in enforcement patterns point to a material effect on shootings and homicides. Their case is that focused deterrence is neither saturation policing nor a services-only model, but a targeted approach whose promise depends on sustained coordination among police, prosecutors, service providers, and community leaders.

Hoover InstitutionJul 8, 202616 min read