Joseph Francis

Joseph Francis is a Welsh economic historian and honorary research fellow in the University of Birmingham’s Department of Economics. His work includes a critique of research behind the “China Shock” narrative.

The China Shock’s Wage and Living-Standards Findings Did Not Survive a Revised Design

Economic historian Joseph Francis argues that the research behind the influential China shock narrative is less conclusive than its policy influence suggests. On EconTalk with Russ Roberts, he says a 2022 correction to the research design cut the estimated effect on manufacturing employment roughly in half and largely erased reported effects on wages and living standards. The revised result leaves open how much Chinese imports contributed to local job losses, but, Francis argues, it weakens the broader claims often drawn from the research.

Hoover InstitutionNov 2, 202612 min read