Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

Global Fertility Has Fallen Below Replacement, Though Population Keeps Growing

Economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde says global fertility has fallen below replacement, though demographic momentum is expected to keep the world’s population growing for decades before it peaks and declines. The sharpest declines in many middle-income countries challenge the familiar link between rising income and smaller families, while the cause remains uncertain; his own explanation—that modern life makes a third child costly and childlessness easier—is speculative. He argues that the eventual population decline and aging will strain public budgets and reduce the pool of potential innovators.