Focused Deterrence Helped Baltimore Cut Homicides Without Saturation Policing
Steven Davis’s interview with economists Aaron Chalfin and Max Kapustin examines Baltimore’s 2022 adoption of focused deterrence, a strategy aimed at the small number of people, groups, and disputes driving serious gun violence. Chalfin and Kapustin argue that the evidence does not prove the strategy caused Baltimore’s full 60% homicide decline, but that district-level comparisons, crime-specific declines, and changes in enforcement patterns point to a material effect on shootings and homicides. Their case is that focused deterrence is neither saturation policing nor a services-only model, but a targeted approach whose promise depends on sustained coordination among police, prosecutors, service providers, and community leaders.
Hoover Institution·Jul 8, 2026·16 min read
