Latino Voters’ 2024 Shift Toward Trump Has Not Become a Realignment

An NBC News/Telemundo poll of 800 registered Latino voters found that 59 per cent preferred Democratic control of Congress, compared with 35 per cent who preferred Republican control. The poll was conducted September 21–28, with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

That preference challenges the idea that Donald Trump’s gains among Latino voters in 2024 marked a permanent change in party loyalties.

In California’s 22nd congressional district, Republican mayor Victor Martinez of Mendota says he will vote for Democrat Randy Villegas, who is challenging Republican incumbent David Valadao. Martinez’s explanation is brief: “It’s time for change. It’s time for all of us to work together and send Randy Villegas to Congress.”

Villegas frames the contest around promises that, in his view, have not been kept. Trump campaigned on lowering gas and egg prices and ending “forever wars,” he says; instead, Villegas points to high gas and diesel prices and the war in Iran, which he says is costing roughly $1bn a day. He argues that Valadao and Trump have delivered the opposite of what voters were promised.

The shift does not mean that Latino voters have stopped weighing economic concerns or that all are moving in the same direction. In the poll, Republicans held an edge over Democrats on which party would do better on the economy: 48 per cent to 37 per cent in 2026. On cost of living, Republicans were at 45 per cent and Democrats at 37 per cent. Economic anxiety helped Trump in 2024; dissatisfaction over prices can now work against him.

Randy Villegas says Trump spoke to economic worries in 2024 while Democrats dismissed them. Latino voters concerned about inflation could hear a direct promise from Trump, a businessman, to lower prices “on day one.” Some also supported his immigration rhetoric, believing undocumented migrants were receiving rights and privileges for which they had struggled over decades.

Now the cost of essentials is part of the case against the administration. In Passaic, Isaac says gasoline costs $4.69 a gallon and food prices are rising. Guy Chazan links that frustration partly to a Middle Eastern war that has pushed up prices for everyday items. The price pressure is not the only issue, but it gives voters a familiar measure against which to judge Trump’s promises.

Chazan identifies anger and fear over immigration enforcement as a more consequential shift. Local politicians say the tactics of Immigration and Customs Enforcement have turned Latino communities against Republicans. Passaic mayor Hector Lora describes people being detained and held in conditions involving family separation and, in some cases, inadequate food, medical care or access to legal assistance. He says this is not an appropriate way to enforce immigration law.

That criticism sits alongside the fact that some Latino voters still support Trump. Angel Castillo, a Dominican-style restaurant owner in Passaic, says he voted for Trump in all three of his presidential runs and may vote Republican again. He does not describe the party as wholly legitimate or better; rather, he says Republicans appeal to him on family values, work ethic and bringing jobs to the US. His view is a reminder that a broad swing in preference does not erase individual reasons for staying with the party.

Trump’s 2024 gains encouraged claims that Latino voters had shifted decisively towards Republicans. New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial election challenged that expectation: Latino voters backed Democrat Mikie Sherrill by double digits. For pollster Dan Cassino, the result showed that Republicans had mistaken a temporary coalition for a permanent one. Voters either returned to the Democratic party or did not turn out, he says.

The 2024 vote itself was closer than a simple story of lasting realignment suggests. Surveys of validated voters put Latino support for the Democratic presidential candidate at 51 per cent in 2024, against 48 per cent for the Republican. The Democratic share had been 61 per cent in 2020 and 66 per cent in 2016. The figures document a sharp Republican gain, but not the disappearance of Democratic support.

Current attitudes do not amount to an across-the-board embrace of Democrats. A Pew Research Center survey found that 53 per cent of Latino registered voters had a favourable view of the Democratic party and 46 per cent an unfavourable one. For Republicans, the balance ran the other way: 29 per cent favourable and 70 per cent unfavourable. Democrats have an advantage in these views, but still face substantial disapproval.

California’s 22nd district is one competitive contest where Latino voters may matter, but Republican analyst Mike Madrid argues their influence now extends well beyond traditionally prominent Latino areas. He points to states including Alaska, Tennessee, Ohio, Kansas, Georgia and North Carolina, saying Latino voters can be decisive there. They are no longer a small regional part of the electorate, he argues, and neither party can afford to ignore them.

The midterm preference in the poll may change by the next election. As the Latino community grows, so does its influence over American elections. The current swing is a warning against treating the 2024 gains as settled allegiance.